2012 domestic fiber-optic demand enterprise brewing price promotion profit

We recently investigated a number of listed, unlisted fiber-optic cable company. Each manufacturer thinks consistently, the beginning of the end of 2011, in order to move as the representative of carrier fiber demand increases apparently, order had been discharged after 2 months. Wherein, ZTT believed its capacity is 15%～ 20% notches, each department has to coordinate a fiber distribution.

Each manufacturer while on the 2012 total demand data from different perspectives, but on the domestic optical fiber capacity data consensus, that by the end of 2011 kilometers around the 130000000 core, with ZTT 15% ～20% capacity gap calculation, we think 2012 domestic total demand amounts to 150000000 kilometers of fiber core, supply and demand gap of 20000000 core km.

Some manufacturers have expansion plans, but even in such big manufacturer, at the venue, equipment, funds were no restrictions, projects have been started under the condition, the release of production capacity has also been at the end of 2012. Another small manufacturers to reflect, its fiber expansion to 1 and a half years, the project has not started. We expect domestic fiber production capacity expansion of the fastest can only release in 2013, the year 2012 will maintain supply situation.

In the current fiber supply situation, the manufacturers agreed that prices will continue to decline in 2012 fiber, ZTT as guild presidency is also active in all major manufacturers hope to increase joint. Because the optical fiber cost is relatively fixed, once the price, to the enterprise profit obvious contribution.

Optical fiber from a preform production, global optical fiber preform structure stability over the past ten years, gross 6000 tons, about 220000000 kilometers to the core optical fiber. Because the bar expansion cycle is long, foreign manufacturers will not easily expansion. New rod production concentrated in the domestic homemade wand ( 200 tons, 350 tons of Hengtong transit. ), and beacon, Fortis and Japan joint venture factory under foreign control, mostly from Japan to domestic production capacity, the total production capacity increases not much. If the hypothesis that global wand of increase production 1000 tons, is the domestic optical fiber capacity limit in 2013 150000000 -core km.

The next 5 years, data flow eruptions are the most identified trends, will drive bearing data transmission network upgrade ceaselessly, while the domestic transmission network upgrade mostly choose to laying fiber, 13-15 years is expected to operator fiber demand will continue to increase. In 2013, the domestic optical fiber capacity in the 150000000 core km blocked it, will continue to present the state that demand exceeds supply.

In the current fiber the imbalance of supply and demand, the manufacturers agreed that prices will continue to decline in 2012 fiber. Because the optical fiber cost is relatively fixed, once the price, to the enterprise profit obvious contribution. Expect price case 2012, fiber price will continue in 2011 three carriers of the minimum price 68 yuan / core kilometers, price, in the 72 yuan / core km ( 72 yuan for the current fiber bulk price ).